Intermediate elections in Mexico 2021: an initial panorama.
Mexico will begin the largest electoral process in its history. In the elections of June 6, 2021, the Chamber of Deputies will be renewed in its entirety, local congresses will be elected in 30 out of 32 states, as will 15 governors and more than 1,900 municipalities. Voter registration is also at a record high, exceeding 95 million voters (an increase of 6% compared to the 2018 elections). The magnitude of the task alone would represent a significant logistical challenge for the electoral authorities, but the unexpected COVID-19 pandemic will potentially add a layer of complexity.
On the political players’ side, the 2021 elections will undoubtedly be one of the most competitive elections. Mexican political parties do not currently enjoy a good social standing; according to the latest Latinobarometro assessment, only 8% of respondents trust partisan institutions. This has had several consequences, including the systematic increase in the non-partisan population, reflected in all current surveys.
Traditional parties will reach Federal Congress elections at its worst level in terms of vote intention. According to the April survey by El Financiero, MORENA would attain just 18% of the vote, followed by PAN with 10% and the PRI with only 8%.
At present, everything seems to indicate that the opposition parties will make an enormous effort to seek strategic alliances to take away the majority in the Chamber of Deputies to MORENA, the ruling party. The latest demoscopic results carried out by the Massive Caller pollster show three scenarios, two of which are realistic. The first scenario, where the opposition parties arrive at the election day without alliances, predicts a dramatic loss of oposition seats; the second scenario, where the conditions are comparable to those observed in the 2018 elections, predict similar results to the current state of affairs; the third, a highly unlikely scenario, depicts an alliance of all parties against the MORENA party.
With regard to the elections for Mayors and Local Congresses, a varied range of alliances are expected, not necessarily in line with those set for Federal Congress. The performance of some mayors and governors may impact voter preferences next year. The municipalities and governors of the opposition (mainly PAN — PRI) are the ones with higher approval ratings, not MORENA’s -as reflected in the May poll by Massive Caller.
Nevertheless, there will be guvernatorial elections in 15 entities. Several surveys (including Digital Demoscopia) show a significant preference of the electorate for MORENA. If that party’s victory were to take place in at least 10 of the 15 state elections, the party would go on to govern a total of 16 states, that is, half the country. The PRI party would be the most affected. Among the multiple factors that will influence state elections, the work carried out by each state executive throughout his term on issues such as employment, insecurity and health -now particularly relevant due to the COVID-19 pandemic- will particularly influence the vote.
THE OPPOSITION IN ITS MAZE
Overall, the oposition will arrive very weakened to the midterm elections of 2021, hindering its campaigning effectiveness. The opposition seems to have gone astray after the 2018 electoral process. There has not been a revisionist position that would have allowed a critical evaluation of the way in which power has been exercised, at least in the last 6 years. It must be remembered (and this has been reflected in multiple opinion polls) that a large part of the electorate voted for the current president as a result of a strong rejection of the way of governing, mainly the PRI and the PAN. Furthermore, the country has not witnessed a wide and open debate that could lead to programmatic proposals appropriate to current times, providing answers to the structural and conjunctural problems of Mexico. What we have been witnessing are positions that appeal to the same concepts and discourses of past governments that have already been delegitimized, with the same actors — many of them with decades on the political scene — without making way for new leaders. An innovative and modern change agenda has not crystallized in the main opposition parties, which is the starting point for actions that allow a new approach to the citizen, recovering confidence, of all of the popular classes. Succeeding in the 2021 midterm elections will not be an easy task for the opposition next year, even for new parties that will simply try to survive.
MORENA, FROM THE COMFORT ZONE TO THE RISK ZONE
Following the trends in preferences reflected in most national demoscopic studies, the party of the President will become the dominant political organization in the country, expected to win half of the governorships and maintain a majority in the House of Deputies, and probably having a significant increase in participation in Local Congresses and mayors. This partisan support is sustained by the presidential popularity that, although it has fallen compared to the beginning of his government, is still high (according to the June poll by El Financiero). Although the percentage difference between the president’s popularity and support for the MORENA party is relevant, both move in sync.
In addition, social programs, targeted to specific sectors of the population, have indirectly supported the positive image of the federal government throughout the country. The lack of leadership and innovative proposals within opposition parties, has allowed certain strength to the current government. However, MORENA is not exempt from taking risks and leaving the comfort zone. Currently there is a categorical division within the Morena party. The friction that has been occurring recently, as evidenced by the election of the national party presidency for which at least 4 different subgroups contended. This may lead to a loss of strength in the face of the midterm elections.
Another element that could erode MORENA’s goals is the negative impact that the COVID-19 pandemic is having on the country. This year, the country’s economy is expected to decrease by 7%, according to forecasts rating agencies, international financial organizations and the Bank of Mexico itself. This will mean an estimated loss of more than one million formal jobs, the closure of companies (mainly Small Business) and an environment of general uncertainty.
Finally, the high levels of violence and insecurity across the country (homicides, femicides and robberies), will undoubtedly eventually imply a handicap for the MORENA party.
Next year’s midterm elections can become a watershed, interpreted as an indirect evaluation of the current federal government, or as an opportunity for the electorate to finish displacing an opposition disconnected from the country’s new reality.
